What is a Theory of Change (ToC)?
A Theory of Change sets out ‘a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context’. Taken from Theoryofchange.org https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/
But that’s what a change pathway does, I hear you cry! To some degree, yes. The very linear change pathway is based on a logic model or log frame, a format that, ‘has been around for several decades and was the first widespread attempt to depict programme components so that activities are matched to outcomes’ (Anne-Murray Brown, 2016). Yet a ToC builds on the main components of the Change Pathway in a more comprehensive way. It is useful to map out complex organisational-level or strategic change, rather than project-level change. The two, however, are complementary.
Tip: You should be familiar with the concepts of outputs, indicators, activity, outcomes and impact by now. If you need a refresher, go back to Phase one or to our Glossary page.
Image 11. Europeana’s change pathway, from Phase one of the Impact Playbook
13 steps to a Theory of Change
The Theory of Change and Museums and Heritage websites each outline six different steps in developing a Theory of Change. We have adapted this for our own purposes. Many of these steps can be guided by using the Impact Playbook and you can see the relevant phase highlighted in italics.
...
Define the target audience(s). Phase one.
Determine the vision of the overall impact or goal. Phase one.
Identify your assumptions about the context. What is happening and how can your activities contribute or not? Phase one.
Work backwards to brainstorm the changes that you want your project, activity or organisation to have for your stakeholders. Phase one.
Make the connections between each outcome - line them up from short-term to longer-term, just like you would in a change pathway, and draw connections between them. Phase one.
Prioritise these outcomes and change pathways. Phase one and Phase two.
Interrogate the connections between each outcome. Are the connections causal (that one causes the other) or likely, and is there evidence or experience to back this up?
Identify your implicit or explicit assumptions about the changes that you think will happen - this will help you focus on the areas where you need to collect more data or focus on other areas.
Create individual change pathways if needed, to outline the areas that you are focussing on. Phase two.
Develop indicators to help you measure change. Phase two.
Write the ToC narrative that guides your reader through the context.
Visualise the ToC in a way that is attractive and simple to understand for a reader. Phase three.
Measure change through data collection. Phase two.
Report on your impact as evidenced through your data collection. Phase three.
Regularly review, report on and update your Theory of Change. Phase four.
There is no one-size-fits-all approach to developing a Theory of Change, as you can see in the image below.
Image 12. image of search responses from a Google search when searching for Theory of Change images.
What is important is that you stay top-level. You can build individual change pathways for different activities that map onto your theory of change. A ToC might also direct where you pay attention to next in terms of impact assessment. Thus, it takes you straight back into Phase one of the Impact Playbook.
How is a Theory of Change different from the Phase one Change Pathway?
ToCs show more of the strategic picture around the change processes at play. Different change pathways therefore can sit within one ToC.
ToCs help to show more complexity around processes of change. This is why it is more suitable for organisational and sectoral activities, rather than individual projects (where this level of detail may not be necessary).
A ToC has space for more detail. You can outline dependencies, circularities and feedback loops, assumptions, and changes that occur that might not be related to your actions. You can also highlight what change pathways are more important or likely than others.
A ToC can also be more creative - you can use visualisations to best represent the change that is taking place.
A ToC answers the ‘why’ and ‘how’ of why change happens - you have to explain the connections between each activity and outcome in a more comprehensive way.
A ToC (like a change pathway) should be updated as what you learn about your stakeholders and the outcomes of your activities changes.
Our change pathway approach set out in Phase one says that you can begin thinking first about the impact (from the right hand side of the change pathway to the left) or by working through the change way of your planned activities through to the impact (left to right). In ToCs, you normally start with the big picture impact and work from right to left.
ToCs are usually more complex than change pathways and reflect more complex situations.
Some ToCs also have accountability lines.
ToCs are accompanied by a narrative that explains the processes shown.
...