Tip.

You should be familiar with the concepts of outputs, indicators, activity, outcomes and impact by now. If you need a refresher, go back to Phase one or

1. Define the target audience(s). Phase one.

2. Determine the vision of the overall impact or goal. Phase one.

3. Identify your assumptions about the context. What is happening and how can your activities contribute or not? Phase one. 

4. Work backwards to brainstorm the changes that you want your project, activity or organisation to have for your stakeholders. Phase one. 

5. Make the connections between each outcome - line them up from short-term to longer-term, just like you would in a change pathway, and draw connections between them. Phase one. 

6. Prioritise these outcomes and change pathways. Phase one and Phase two. 

   1. Interrogate the connections between each outcome. Are the connections causal (that one causes the other) or likely, and is there evidence or experience to back this up? 

   2. Identify your implicit or explicit assumptions about the changes that you think will happen - this will help you focus on the areas where you need to collect more data or focus on other areas. 

7. Create individual change pathways if needed, to outline the areas that you are focussing on. Phase two. 

8. Develop indicators to help you measure change. Phase two. 

9. Write the ToC narrative that guides your reader through the context.

10. Visualise the ToC in a way that is attractive and simple to understand for a reader. Phase three.

11. Measure change through data collection. Phase two. 

12. Report on your impact as evidenced through your data collection. Phase three.

13. Regularly review, report on and update your Theory of Change. Phase four. 

Refresh your memory and check out the Change Pathway guidance.

• Step 2. Build your Change Pathway

Europeana case study 

At any point during your impact assessment process, did you think to yourself: I understand more about my project and whether it is meeting its goals. But do I need to think more about how this project connects to the work of my organisation and its mission? 

If you did, you’re not alone. In 2019-2020, we conducted a series of impact assessments on different areas of our work, which, though related, could be assessed as individual project activities or initiatives. We learned a lot about what we could say about the impact of each of these activities, but we couldn’t easily summarise what this activity meant for Europeana as a whole and how each example of impact fit in with Europeana’s strategy and mission. 

Working with external consultants, we took our first steps to tackle this by creating a first draft of a Theory of Change (ToC). The Europeana ToC was designed to set out the bigger change we want to have and to explore the outcomes, conditions, contingencies, loops and complexity around this change process. 

Where is Europeana now?

We have so far been through two ToC design processes at different times. In the first design process, Covid got in the way of the validation of the Theory of Change; new priorities emerged, existing priorities changed, and the entire PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) context around us was changing too. 

At the same time, we realised that we had been too detailed. As we were creating the draft ToC, our colleagues expected to see their work reflected clearly in the pathways, but this meant that the ToC was not high-level enough. This meant that it was difficult to operationalise. We left the exercise but learnt a lot from the experience. 

Our second ToC exercise looked at one strand of the Europeana 2020 - 2025 strategy: build capacity. This exercise was also led by an external consultant who brainstormed with different representatives across the Europeana initiative to find out what our priorities should be. This ToC is being validated by our Task Force on capacity building for digital transformation. It will also need to be updated, and as such, it is not yet publicly available. However, we can tell you about its high-level outcomes and impact. 

It considered capacity building for Europeana at three levels: the individual, network and at the institutional levels. It identified three long-term outcomes: 

1. Improved access on open platforms.

2. Enhanced participation, diversity and inclusion.

3. Increased actions to digitise the cultural heritage sector.

These would lead towards the identified impact: The ultimate aim or change that we aspire for is the availability of diverse, inclusive and accessible content on open digital platforms where persons can connect to be educated on (as well as to enjoy) the cultural heritage in Europe’s heritage institutions.

What did Europeana learn through a Theory of Change process? 

We learned a lot in the processes described above. 

• External perspectives are really important. The ToC process relies on adequate stakeholder input.

• It’s hard to find the distance to keep the ToC as top-level as it should be. 

• The most value from a ToC comes when it is validated, used, reviewed and updated regularly. It shouldn’t just be a document on a (digital) shelf.

• Plan the validation process and keep everyone up to date about your progress. 

• Ensure that senior management sees the value in the process and that they know how to read the ToC and commit to using and reviewing it. Make it a standing agenda item at meetings, for example.