What is a Theory of Change (ToC)?
A Theory of Change sets out ‘a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context’. Taken from Theoryofchange.org https://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/
But that’s what a change pathway does, I hear you cry! To some degree, yes. The very linear change pathway is based on a logic model or log frame, a format that, ‘has been around for several decades and was the first widespread attempt to depict programme components so that activities are matched to outcomes’ (Anne-Murray Brown, 2016). Yet a ToC builds on the main components of the Change Pathway in a more comprehensive way. It is useful to map out complex organisational-level or strategic change, rather than project-level change. The two, however, are complementary.
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Tip. You should be familiar with the concepts of outputs, indicators, activity, outcomes and impact by now. If you need a refresher, go back to Phase one or the Glossary. |
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13 steps to a Theory of Change
The Theory of Change and Museums and Heritage websites each outline six different steps in developing a Theory of Change. We have adapted this for our own purposes. Many of these steps can be guided by using the Impact Playbook (see the end of each step).
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What is important is that you stay top-level. You can build individual change pathways for different activities that map onto your theory of change. A ToC might also direct where you pay attention to next in terms of impact assessment. Thus, it takes you straight back into Phase one of the Impact Playbook.
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How is a Theory of Change different from the Phase one Change Pathway?
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Refresh your memory and check out the Change Pathway guidance. |
ToCs show more of the strategic picture around the change processes at play. Different change pathways therefore can sit within one ToC.
ToCs help to show more complexity around processes of change. This is why it is more suitable for organisational and sectoral activities, rather than individual projects (where this level of detail may not be necessary).
A ToC has space for more detail. You can outline dependencies, circularities and feedback loops, assumptions, and changes that occur that might not be related to your actions. You can also highlight what change pathways are more important or likely than others.
A ToC can also be more creative - you can use visualisations to best represent the change that is taking place.
A ToC answers the ‘why’ and ‘how’ of why change happens - you have to explain the connections between each activity and outcome in a more comprehensive way.
A ToC (like a change pathway) should be updated as what you learn about your stakeholders and the outcomes of your activities changes.
Our change pathway approach set out in Phase one says that you can begin thinking first about the impact (from the right hand side of the change pathway to the left) or by working through the change way of your planned activities through to the impact (left to right). In ToCs, you normally start with the big picture impact and work from right to left.
ToCs are usually more complex than change pathways and reflect more complex situations.
Some ToCs also have accountability lines.
ToCs are accompanied by a narrative that explains the processes shown.
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Europeana case studyAt any point during your impact assessment process, did you think to yourself: I understand more about my project and whether it is meeting its goals. But do I need to think more about how this project connects to the work of my organisation and its mission? If you did, you’re not alone. In 2019-2020, we conducted a series of impact assessments on different areas of our work, which, though related, could be assessed as individual project activities or initiatives. We learned a lot about what we could say about the impact of each of these activities, but we couldn’t easily summarise what this activity meant for Europeana as a whole and how each example of impact fit in with Europeana’s strategy and mission. Working with external consultants, we took our first steps to tackle this by creating a first draft of a Theory of Change (ToC). The Europeana ToC was designed to set out the bigger change we want to have and to explore the outcomes, conditions, contingencies, loops and complexity around this change process. Where is Europeana now? We have so far been through two ToC design processes at different times. In the first design process, Covid got in the way of the validation of the Theory of Change; new priorities emerged, existing priorities changed, and the entire PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental) context around us was changing too. At the same time, we realised that we had been too detailed. As we were creating the draft ToC, our colleagues expected to see their work reflected clearly in the pathways, but this meant that the ToC was not high-level enough. This meant that it was difficult to operationalise. We left the exercise but learnt a lot from the experience. Our second ToC exercise looked at one strand of the Europeana 2020 - 2025 strategy: build capacity. This exercise was also led by an external consultant who brainstormed with different representatives across the Europeana initiative to find out what our priorities should be. This ToC is being validated by our Task Force on capacity building for digital transformation. It will also need to be updated, and as such, it is not yet publicly available. However, we can tell you about its high-level outcomes and impact. It considered capacity building for Europeana at three levels: the individual, network and at the institutional levels. It identified three long-term outcomes:
These would lead towards the identified impact: The ultimate aim or change that we aspire for is the availability of diverse, inclusive and accessible content on open digital platforms where persons can connect to be educated on (as well as to enjoy) the cultural heritage in Europe’s heritage institutions. What did Europeana learn through a Theory of Change process? We learned a lot in the processes described above.
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